Ya know, it's just an honor to be nominated...

This past Tuesday, the nominees for the 2010 Academy Awards were announced. Knee-deep in SF Sketchfest madness, I haven't had the time until now to really examine them--some surprises, some snubs, some head-scratchers...but who will go home with gold statuettes? My thoughts, category by category (save for technical categories and some of the smaller ones)...

BEST PICTURE

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglorious Basterds

Precious

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker

SHOULD WIN: District 9

SNUBBED: Star Trek, Invictus

In order to include some big popcorn movies in addition to the usual arthouse fare, Oscar opened up the field to include 10 nominees instead of 5, a practice they used to do back in the early days of the ceremony. Very happy to see District 9 in there--Neil Blomkamp's original sci-fi thriller is deserving of some accolades. The Hurt Locker has a very good chance of pulling off the win, though I wouldn't be surprised if James Cameron's Avatar takes it, since it is now officially the highest grossing film of all time, just seven weeks into it's release. Moderately entertaining eye candy, Avatar is a technical marvel with a pretty bad script (does Cameron only have, like, 10 characters he just keeps recycling from film to film? Can Paul Reiser sue Giovani Ribisi for his copycat performance?) Surprised that Star Trek didn't get a nod, as it was popular with both audiences and critics alike. Biggest surprise here: The Blind Side. Middling reviews at best, it struck a chord with audiences but is considered to be a by-the-numbers manipulative heart-string tugger.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow; The Hurt Locker

Jason Reitman; Up in the Air

James Cameron; Avatar

Lee Daniels; Precious

Quentin Tarantino; Inglorious Basterds

WILL WIN: Kathryn Bigelow

SHOULD WIN: Kathryn Bigelow

SNUBBED: Clint Eastwood; Invictus, Neil Blomkamp; District 9

Kathryn Bigelow did an outstanding job with The Hurt Locker--she crafts one taught, thrilling scene after another and guides an outstanding cast. She's helmed a lot of underrated actioners in the past (Point Break, Blue Steel, Near Dark, Strange Days) and it's great that she is finally getting the recognition she deserves. I'm hoping that James Cameron doesn't take it--after all, he is responsible for his deplorable screenwriting.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges; Crazy Heart

George Clooney; Up in the Air

Colin Firth; A Single Man

Morgan Freeman; Invictus

Jeremy Renner; The Hurt Locker

WILL WIN: Jeff Bridges

SHOULD WIN: Jeremy Renner

SNUBBED: Sharlto Copley; District 9, Matt Damon; The Informant!

I confess, I haven't yet seen Crazy Heart, so it's hard for me to really pick Renner over Bridges, but Jeremy Renner was so fantastic in The Hurt Locker, it's hard to think of anyone eclipsing him. Freeman fully channeled Mandela in Invictus, but Oscar voters will probably feel he's been honored enough in the past. Look for Bridges to get that career-encompassing Oscar this year.

***NOTE: Went to a late showing of Crazy Heart last night, and holy lord, Bridges is good. He's such a dynamic, subtle actor, he inhabits the role of Bad Blake and you forget that behind the booze and country music is Bridges the actor. He's just as deserving as Renner.

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock; The Blind Side

Helen Mirren; The Last Station

Carey Mulligan; An Education

Gabourey Sidibe; Precious

Meryl Streep; Julie & Julia

WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock

SHOULD WIN: Carey Mulligan

SNUBBED: Melanie Laurent; Inglorious Basterds

Ok, even though I saw 50 movies released this year, I didn't see ANY of the above. I have screener copies of An Education, Precious and Julie & Julia awaiting me (thanks SAG!), but haven't had the chance to view them yet. I guess I really can't have a "should win" since I have nothing to base it on, but the few clips I've seen of Carey Mulligan are winning. I'll revise this section once I've viewed everything...

***Note: Last night, I watched An Education--and Mulligan was seriously fantastic, so I'll stick with her as my should win pick.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon; Invictus

Woody Harrelson; The Messenger

Christopher Plummer; The Last Station

Stanley Tucci; The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz; Inglorious Basterds

WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz

SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz

SNUBBED: Anthony Mackie; The Hurt Locker, Alfred Molina; An Education

Mackie matched Renner's intensity in The Hurt Locker, it's appalling that he didn't get nominated. I really like Matt Damon a lot, but I thought his performance was kinda quiet and one note in Invictus, whereas his tremendous work in The Informant! went unnoticed. Nice to see Plummer get a nod (he's never been nominated before), but from what I've heard, The Last Station is one of those over dramatic period pieces that give period pieces a bad name. Waltz was the best thing about Inglorious Basterds, and is deserving of the award--you can't take your eyes off of him whenever he is on screen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz; Nine

Vera Farmiga; Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal; Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick; Up in the Air

Mo'nique; Precious

WILL WIN: Mo'nique

SHOULD WIN: Mo'nique

SNUBBED: Diane Kruger; Inglorious Basterds

Granted, I haven't seen Precious, but Mo'nique is incredible in every clip I've seen. Farmiga was the best thing about Up in the Air, and would be deserving of the award in any other year, but Mo'nique is the closest thing to a lock we have this year. Kendrick was serviceable in Up in the Air, but a few moments rang false (her "crying" scene after her boyfriend breaks up with her, for one). Penelope Cruz? REALLY? Nine was savaged by critics, and I'm sorry, but half the time I have no idea what she is saying.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Coraline

Fantastic Mr. Fox

The Princess and the Frog

The Secret of Kells

Up

WILL WIN: Up

SHOULD WIN: Fantastic Mr. Fox or Coraline

SNUBBED: 9; Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

What an amazing year for animation! Up was another outstanding Pixar entry (the ten minute romance montage at the top is one of the best pieces of filmmaking of the year, period), but it came in third in my book, behind Wes Anderson's delightful Mr. Fox and the Henry Selick/Neil Gaiman stop-motion masterpiece Coraline. It was also nice to see Disney return to hand-drawn animation with The Princess and the Frog, which may have only been so-so overall, but looked great, nonetheless.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ajami (Israel)

The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)

Un Prophete (France)

El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)

The White Ribbon (Germany)

WILL/SHOULD WIN: The White Ribbon

The White Ribbon, directed by Michael Haneke (who did the great Cache), already won the Palm D'or at Cannes and will mostly collect the award come Oscar night.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal; The Hurt Locker

Quentin Tarantino; Inglorious Basterds

Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman; The Messenger

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen; A Serious Man

Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy; Up

WILL WIN: The Hurt Locker

SHOULD WIN: The Hurt Locker

SNUBBED: Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber; (500) Days of Summer

The Hurt Locker is ripe with intense imagery, speeches and surprising twists and turns, and gave the actors a lot of work with. I'm surprised (500) Days of Summer was left off this list--it was a refreshing, original take on the rom com (though rang a bit too precious with some).

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell; District 9

Nick Hornby; An Education

Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche; In the Loop

Geoffrey Fletcher; Precious

Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner; Up in the Air

WILL WIN: Up in the Air

SHOULD WIN: Up in the Air

SNUBBED: Wes Anderson; Fantastic Mr. Fox

Up in the Air is a throwback to the screwball comedies of Preston Sturges, with a bit of Capra thrown in--this film has the chance to become a classic, a time capsule of the uncertain economic times we live in. Anderson's Mr. Fox was a delightful, fun adaptation of Roald Dahl's short story, and very much belongs on this list.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

The Hurt Locker

Inglorious Basterds

The White Ribbon

WILL WIN: Avatar

SHOULD WIN: Avatar

SNUBBED: Star Trek; District 9; Where the Wild Things Are

Cameron's big blue pic should win this and most technical awards, which is why I won't detail any of the rest of them. Spike Jonz' Wild Things, though a bit of a disappointment, still looked amazing, and should have been nominated.

Good luck to all of the nominess--remember, it's an honor to be nominated!*

*ok, it's kinda bullshit to say that, I know...